EUR/USD has tried to hold onto gains related to vaccine promises as Covid's hold in Europeو and the US is pressing on markets. Crucial support at 1.1780 is in danger.

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The old continent continues wrestling with COVID-19. The latest major development is that Italy hit limitations on additional areas and is under pressure to announce a nationwide lockdown. Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte has to bargain with protests against further measures that kill the economy. In Germany, which announced a relatively light shuttering, cases and deaths maintain rising.

The situation in the US is also worsening. Not only are infections and deaths rising, but hospitalizations have reached an all-time high, and some facilities are strained. Nevada's governor ordered his residents to stay at home, but so far avoided making it necessary.

Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, will speak later in the day. She may say on the vaccine but is unlikely to back down from her plan to expand the bond-buying scheme. The focus may begin shifting to economic achievement rather than politics. 

Momentum on the 4-hour chart has turned to the downside, a bearish development. Euro/dollar is nearing critical support at 1.1780, which was a swing low earlier this week and also a seat in late October. Moreover, it is where the 100 Simple Moving Average hits the price. Below 1.1780, the next line to watch is 1.1760, which is the junction of the 50 and 200 SMAs. Resistance is at 1.1830, the daily high, supported by 1.1860, a swing high from last week.